Option Value Calculator

Model a domain investment using its purchase price, renewal costs, sale probability, exit value, and cost of capital. The calculation is free, no signup required. It costs 1 credit to verify the assumptions with Speeder, and verification requires an account.

The free calculation stays in this browser, is not saved by itself, and uses no credits.

Verify assumptions sends the domain and numbers to Speeder, saves the report, and uses 1 credit only when it completes.

Assumptions

What could this domain return?

Use realistic numbers. Small probability changes have a large effect.

Domain name (required for verification)

Initial purchase priceAcquisition cost

Holding periodPlanned ownership

Total renewal costsAcross the full hold

End-user sale priceTarget retail outcome

Annual sale probabilityChance in each year

Wholesale liquidation valueExit value if unsold

Cost of capitalAnnual discount rate

Model results

The numbers that matter most

Current assumptions

Discounted option value

$1,296.11

Present value of the opportunity

Discounted net profit

$1,116.11

After costs and discounting

Discounted investment return

310.03%

Return on invested capital

End-user sale probability

3.94%

Across the full holding period

3.94% sale96.06% liquidation

Expected net profit: $1,456.31
Expected sale revenue: $1,576.16
Expected liquidation revenue: $240.15
Total expected revenue: $1,816.31
Present option value: $1,636.31
Expected investment return: 404.53%

Assumption verifier

Want Speeder to challenge these numbers?

Speeder checks the domain, market evidence, and your investment framework. Verification uses 1 credit only when the report completes.

How the model works+

How the model works

A probability-weighted holding decision

The model combines an end-user sale during the holding period with a wholesale liquidation if no sale occurs. It subtracts renewal costs and discounts the result for time and risk.

01 / SALE CHANCE

Cumulative probability = 1 - (1 - annual probability)^years. The annual chance is assumed constant and independent each year.

02 / EXPECTED VALUE

Each outcome value is multiplied by its probability. If no end-user sale happens, the model assumes a wholesale exit at the end.

03 / DISCOUNTING

Renewal costs are subtracted as one total, matching the reference sheet. The remaining option value is discounted by the cost of capital over the holding period.

Use this as a decision model, not a valuation. It is not an appraisal, a price recommendation, or a guaranteed return. The output is only as realistic as the assumptions you enter.